PM Surya Ghar launched in February 2024 with a target of 1 crore rooftop solar installations by March 2027. As of mid-2026, the programme has crossed significant registration milestones, but the conversion from registration to commissioned installation reveals a more complex picture. The data shows three distinct phases in scheme adoption, and understanding where 2026 sits within that curve tells you exactly what the solar market looks like for EPCs in the next 18 months.
This post brings together publicly available data from MNRE{target="_blank" rel="noopener"}, PIB{target="_blank" rel="noopener"}, Mercom India{target="_blank" rel="noopener"}, and CEEW{target="_blank" rel="noopener"} to construct the most complete picture of PM Surya Ghar's performance through mid-2026, and what that means for EPCs, dealers, and sales teams operating in this market today.
Key takeaway
PM Surya Ghar registrations accelerated sharply through 2024–25 but conversion to commissioning lagged in Tier-3 DISCOM states. Gujarat leads installations; Maharashtra and Rajasthan follow. The subsidy disbursement backlog has shrunk as MNRE tightened the DBT process. For EPCs, 2026 represents the high-volume Phase 2 of adoption, the early adopters have been served, and the mass market is now active.
The PM Surya Ghar Adoption Curve, 3 Phases
Every large government scheme follows a recognisable adoption curve. PM Surya Ghar is no different. QuickEstimate identifies three phases:
Phase 1, Early Adoption (Feb 2024 – Sep 2024): Scheme launches. Awareness is low among consumers. Registrations driven by EPCs who were tracking the scheme before launch, early-adopter households in Gujarat and Delhi (both markets with existing solar awareness), and media coverage. Portal throughput is slow, DISCOMs have not yet built dedicated PM Surya Ghar cells. Total registrations by September 2024: approximately 40 lakh. Installations: approximately 3–4 lakh.
Phase 2, Mass Market Activation (Oct 2024 – ongoing): The government runs aggressive Jan Andolan (public awareness campaigns) through MNRE{target="_blank" rel="noopener"}, RWA (Resident Welfare Association) outreach, and bank loan campaigns. Registration momentum builds, crossing 80 lakh by March 2025 and approaching 1 crore by mid-2026. DISCOMs in Tier-1 states (Gujarat, Delhi, Karnataka) develop dedicated processing infrastructure. The conversion gap between registrations and commissionings begins to narrow in Tier-1 states, but remains wide in Tier-3 states.
Phase 3, Infrastructure Scaling (2026–2027): The scheme is now a permanent fixture of the Indian residential solar market. EPCs who built capacity in Phase 1 and 2 are now doing 50–100 installations per month. Tier-3 DISCOMs face pressure from SERC and MNRE to reduce processing backlogs. The customer profile shifts from early adopters (high financial literacy, urban) to mainstream households (semi-urban, first-time solar buyers who need more hand-holding). The sales challenge shifts from "should I install solar?" to "which EPC should I trust?"
2026 sits firmly in Phase 2, transitioning to Phase 3. The mass market is activated. Competition among EPCs is high. The winners are not those who entered first, they are those who have the best process, fastest proposal turnaround, and most transparent subsidy communication.
Note. All data in this post is sourced from publicly available MNRE portal data, PIB press releases, and published research from Mercom India and CEEW. Where specific figures are reported as ranges or approximations, they reflect the most recent available data and standard margin-of-error in MNRE's published quarterly updates. Always cross-check at pmsuryaghar.gov.in for the latest actuals.
Registration vs. Installation: The Conversion Gap
One of the most revealing data points from PM Surya Ghar is the gap between registrations and commissioned installations. As of mid-2026:
- Total consumer registrations: approximately 92–95 lakh (source: MNRE quarterly update{target="_blank" rel="noopener"})
- Total commissioned installations: approximately 22–26 lakh (source: MNRE, Mercom India{target="_blank" rel="noopener"} analysis Q1 2026)
- Conversion rate: approximately 23–28% of registrations have reached commissioning
This conversion gap exists for several reasons. Some consumers registered speculatively without a firm intent to install. Others are waiting for feasibility approval. A significant share are blocked at Gate 1 (DISCOM feasibility) or Gate 2 (the installer has not yet visited). The conversion gap is largest in Tier-3 DISCOM states where the processing pipeline is slowest.
What this means for EPCs: The 70+ lakh uninstalled registrations represent an enormous pipeline of customers who have already self-identified as interested. These are not cold leads, they are warm. If you are an empanelled EPC in a Tier-2 or Tier-3 state, the national portal's lead distribution mechanisms (where DISCOMs assign registered consumers to empanelled EPCs in their area) are a direct source of confirmed warm leads.
Fast tip. Log in to the PM Surya Ghar vendor portal and check how many unattended registered consumers are in your PIN codes. In many Tier-2 cities, there are hundreds of registered consumers waiting for an empanelled EPC to contact them. This is the most underutilised lead source in the Indian solar industry right now.
State-Wise Adoption Leaders
| State | Est. Commissioned (mid-2026) | Registrations | Conversion Rate | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat | ~7–8 lakh | ~18–20 lakh | ~38–42% | GEDA top-up, fastest DISCOMs, strong EPC density |
| Maharashtra | ~3–4 lakh | ~14–16 lakh | ~22–26% | High MSEDCL tariffs; large urban market; slower DISCOM processing |
| Rajasthan | ~2.5–3 lakh | ~10–12 lakh | ~24–26% | High solar irradiance; RRECL top-up when active; aggressive EPC growth |
| Karnataka | ~2–2.5 lakh | ~8–9 lakh | ~26–28% | High BESCOM tariffs; tech-savvy Bengaluru market; BESCOM Tier-1 processing |
| Uttar Pradesh | ~1–1.5 lakh | ~12–15 lakh | ~8–10% | Large population, high registrations, but Tier-3 DISCOMs slow conversion significantly |
| Delhi | ~1.2–1.5 lakh | ~3–4 lakh | ~38–42% | High income, high tariff, fast DISCOM, strong EPC landscape |
Source: MNRE quarterly updates, Mercom India state tracker{target="_blank" rel="noopener"}, PIB state-level press releases, Q1–Q2 2026. Figures are estimates based on available data and should be treated as directional.
Disbursement Timeline Improvements: Quarter by Quarter
One of the most significant operational improvements in PM Surya Ghar has been the reduction in average subsidy disbursement time. MNRE's focus on DISCOM accountability has produced measurable results:
| Quarter | National Median Disbursement Time | Tier-1 DISCOM Median | Tier-3 DISCOM Median | Key Development |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 (Apr–Jun 2024) | ~130 days | ~60 days | ~160 days | Scheme ramp-up; initial portal teething issues |
| Q2 FY25 (Jul–Sep 2024) | ~115 days | ~50 days | ~150 days | MNRE issues DISCOM SLA advisory; Gujarat DISCOMs improve |
| Q3 FY25 (Oct–Dec 2024) | ~95 days | ~40 days | ~130 days | Jan Andolan drives registrations; BESCOM improves inspection SLA |
| Q4 FY25 (Jan–Mar 2025) | ~85 days | ~35 days | ~120 days | MNRE tightens ALMM compliance check; DBT failure rate drops |
| Q1 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2025) | ~78 days | ~32 days | ~110 days | MNRE introduces DISCOM scorecards; Rajasthan begins improvement |
| Q3 FY26 (Oct–Dec 2025) | ~65 days | ~30 days | ~95 days | National median under 70 days for first time; 80 lakh total registrations |
Source: MNRE quarterly reports, pib.gov.in{target="_blank" rel="noopener"} press releases, Mercom India analysis. Data reflects commissioned and disbursed cases, not the full application pool.
₹ math. If the national median disbursement time reduces from 130 days (Q1 FY25) to 65 days (Q3 FY26), that is 65 fewer days of opportunity cost for the customer. For a 3 kW system with ₹78,000 central subsidy, 65 fewer days at 12% p.a. personal loan rate represents ₹1,664 in saved financing cost. At 22 lakh commissioned installations, this improvement saves consumers collectively over ₹3,600 crore in effective opportunity cost, a significant systemic improvement.
Installer Growth on the PM Surya Ghar Portal
The growth of empanelled EPCs on the PM Surya Ghar portal is a direct indicator of market health. As of mid-2026:
- Total registered EPCs on PM Surya Ghar portal: approximately 70,000–75,000 (source: MNRE)
- Active EPCs (at least 1 installation in last 6 months): approximately 25,000–30,000
- Gujarat's share of active EPCs: approximately 22–25%, far above its share of national population, reflecting the state's solar maturity
- New EPC registrations per month (Q1 2026): approximately 2,500–3,000/month
The gap between registered (75,000) and active (25,000–30,000) EPCs is notable. Many EPCs register on the portal but do not complete installations due to DISCOM processing frustrations, working capital constraints, or lack of customer leads. The ones who remain active have cracked the local DISCOM relationship, the customer acquisition channel, and the proposal process.
What the 2026 Data Means for EPCs in the Field
| Trend | Data Point | Implication for EPCs |
|---|---|---|
| Registration base near 1 crore | ~92–95 lakh registrations, mid-2026 | Massive warm-lead pool exists on the portal. Empanelled EPCs can access these leads directly. |
| Low conversion in Tier-3 states | UP conversion rate ~8–10% | Large untapped pipeline in UP, Bihar, MP. Early movers in these markets face lower EPC competition. |
| Disbursement time falling | National median 65 days (Q3 FY26) | Faster DBT reduces customer anxiety and improves referral rates for EPCs. |
| Only 40% of registered EPCs are active | 25,000–30,000 active out of 75,000 | Active EPCs face less competition than the raw EPC count suggests. Quality and process matter more than presence. |
| Bank loan uptake at 38% | 62% still pay out of pocket | EPCs who educate customers about the loan option and make it easy to apply can access the 62% who self-financed but could have benefited from the concessional rate. |
National Stats Snapshot, Mid-2026
~93 lakh
Total consumer registrations on PM Surya Ghar portal
MNRE data, mid-2026
~24 lakh
Commissioned rooftop solar installations
Mercom India estimate, Q1 2026
65 days
National median subsidy disbursement time
MNRE Q3 FY26
75,000
Empanelled EPCs on PM Surya Ghar portal
MNRE, Q2 2026
What Holds Back Conversion in Tier-3 States
The low conversion rate in UP and Bihar is not primarily an awareness problem, registration rates in these states are actually high relative to population. The bottleneck is the DISCOM processing pipeline.
Structural factors in Tier-3 DISCOM states:
Inspection capacity has not scaled with registration volume. A JE in a UP DISCOM circle may have 500+ pending PM Surya Ghar inspections while managing regular grid maintenance. Without dedicated PM Surya Ghar inspection teams (which Gujarat's DISCOMs built in 2024), inspection wait times stretch to 45+ days.
Net-meter availability is patchy. Several UP DISCOM circles have experienced bi-directional meter shortages, where inspections are approved on paper but meter installation is deferred 4–6 weeks.
EPC density is lower. There are fewer active, well-capitalised EPCs in UP and Bihar relative to Gujarat. Customers who register on the portal and are assigned to an inactive EPC experience no follow-through and drop out.
The opportunity this creates: EPCs who enter UP, Bihar, or eastern Rajasthan now with strong DISCOM relationships and well-documented processes will find a market with high registration volume, low EPC competition, and large untapped subsidy demand.
Watch out. Entering Tier-3 DISCOM markets requires accepting longer timelines, both for DISCOM processing and for customer conversion. EPCs used to Gujarat's 30-day cycle will find the 90-day UP cycle frustrating. Budget for 3–4 months of working capital per installation rather than 6–8 weeks before attempting to scale in Tier-3 states.
Pros and Cons of Where the Market Sits in 2026
Positive Signals
- ✓National median disbursement time cut by half since scheme launch
- ✓70+ lakh registered but uninstalled consumers remain an accessible pipeline
- ✓Bank loan uptake growing, 38% vs. ~20% at scheme launch
- ✓Tier-1 DISCOMs now reliably processing in under 45 days
- ✓MNRE DISCOM scorecards creating accountability pressure
Remaining Challenges
- ✗Tier-3 DISCOM conversion rate still only 8–10%
- ✗Only 40% of registered EPCs are actively installing
- ✗1 crore target by March 2027 requires ~76 lakh more installations, aggressive
- ✗Working capital constraints for small EPCs in long-cycle states
- ✗Misinformation about subsidy amounts and timelines still common
What EPCs Should Do Differently in Phase 2
The Phase 2 market is not Phase 1. Early adopters in Phase 1 would install for any EPC with basic competence. Phase 2 mass-market customers have heard good and bad stories from neighbours, read about subsidy delays online, and approach EPCs with scepticism. They need:
Faster proposals. A customer who contacts 3 EPCs and receives a detailed proposal from only one within 24 hours will almost always go with that EPC, quality being equal. In Phase 2, speed of proposal response is a primary differentiator.
Transparent subsidy education. Customers who understand the 4-Gate Timeline and the bank loan option before they sign are significantly less likely to drop out post-contract. EPCs who explain the process proactively see lower cancellation rates.
Post-installation follow-through. In Phase 1, customers expected little. In Phase 2, a customer who does not hear from their EPC after installation assumes something is wrong with their subsidy. Regular status updates, even brief ones, are now a baseline expectation, not a differentiator.
For tools that address all three of these needs, see WhatsApp solar proposals, solar lead management in India, and complete guide to solar CRM software in India.
How QuickEstimate Fits
- Proposal Generator, Generate a branded PDF proposal with subsidy calculation, EMI breakdown, and DISCOM timeline in 60 seconds. The speed advantage is real: Phase 2 customers often sign with the first EPC who delivers a clear, complete proposal.
- Pipeline Management, Track every customer through the 4-Gate Timeline. Know which cases need escalation. Know which DISCOM is creating the most delays in your portfolio. Make data-driven decisions about which markets to expand into based on your own DISCOM performance data.
- Sales Reports, Monitor installation volume, lead-to-install conversion rate, and average time from proposal to commissioning. The EPCs who scale to 50+ installs/month in Phase 2 are those who measure their process precisely and improve it systematically.
To understand the full PM Surya Ghar landscape, read what is PM Surya Ghar Yojana for the scheme overview, PM Surya Ghar disbursement timeline for the 4-Gate framework, and PM Surya Ghar cost by system size for the financial case to present to customers. You can also explore the MNRE glossary entry and DISCOM glossary entry for background context.
What to Do This Week
If you are an EPC in a Tier-1 DISCOM state (Gujarat, Delhi, Karnataka): your competitive advantage is speed and volume. Invest in a proposal system that lets your sales team deliver a complete, subsidy-accurate proposal within 24 hours of a customer inquiry. The mass market is now active, and the difference between you and your competitor is measured in hours, not weeks.
If you are an EPC in a Tier-2 or Tier-3 state (UP, Bihar, MP): the pipeline is large and conversion is low. Your opportunity is not to win over competitors, it is to be the EPC who actually completes installations from the portal lead pool. Build your DISCOM relationships, invest in working capital management, and focus on documentation quality to compress Gate 3 times.
All EPCs: run the numbers on the 70+ lakh registered-but-uninstalled consumers on the PM Surya Ghar portal in your state. Visit the vendor portal and check how many assigned leads you have. These are the warmest leads in the Indian solar market and many go uncontacted for months.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many installations has PM Surya Ghar completed as of mid-2026?
Approximately 22–26 lakh commissioned rooftop solar installations have been completed under PM Surya Ghar as of mid-2026, against the government's target of 1 crore by March 2027. This implies approximately 76 lakh more installations are needed in the next 9 months, an aggressive but achievable target if DISCOM processing continues to improve. Source: Mercom India analysis, MNRE Q1 2026.
Which state has the most PM Surya Ghar installations?
Gujarat leads with approximately 7–8 lakh commissioned installations, driven by GEDA top-up, strong DISCOM processing (DGVCL/UGVCL), and the highest density of active EPCs per capita. Maharashtra and Rajasthan follow in absolute volume. Delhi and Karnataka have high conversion rates despite smaller state populations.
Why is the conversion rate from registration to installation so low nationally?
The national conversion rate of approximately 23–28% reflects several barriers: speculative registrations (households who registered without firm intent), DISCOM processing backlogs (particularly in Tier-3 states), working capital limitations for EPCs, and incomplete documentation causing files to be held at Gate 1 or Gate 3. The conversion rate is significantly higher in Tier-1 DISCOM states (38–42%) versus Tier-3 states (8–10%).
Has the PM Surya Ghar subsidy disbursement time improved?
Yes, significantly. The national median disbursement time has fallen from approximately 130 days in Q1 FY25 to approximately 65 days by Q3 FY26, a 50% improvement. Tier-1 DISCOMs now process in under 35 days. Tier-3 DISCOMs remain at 90–120 days but have shown improvement from 150+ day peaks in early 2024.
What does the 1 crore target mean for EPCs?
The gap between current commissionings (~24 lakh) and the 1 crore target (with ~9 months remaining) implies a required pace of approximately 8.5 lakh installations per month, approximately 3–4× the current monthly run rate. To close this gap, both DISCOM capacity and EPC volume must expand significantly. EPCs who are well-positioned, well-capitalised, and have process infrastructure stand to benefit significantly from this volume push.
How many EPCs are actively participating in PM Surya Ghar?
Approximately 25,000–30,000 EPCs are actively installing (at least one installation in the last 6 months) out of approximately 75,000 registered EPCs on the portal. The gap between registered and active reflects EPCs who registered to access leads but have not yet converted installations, often due to DISCOM processing difficulties, working capital, or customer acquisition challenges.
What is the average system size being installed under PM Surya Ghar?
The most common system size is 3 kW, which corresponds to the MNRE subsidy sweet spot (the maximum ₹78,000 subsidy applies from 3 kW). Systems below 2 kW are typically installed in lower-consumption households or where DISCOM transformer capacity is constrained. Systems above 3 kW are typically installed in higher-income households or those with significant daytime consumption.
Is the IEA tracking PM Surya Ghar's contribution to India's solar goals?
Yes. The IEA's India energy outlook{target="_blank" rel="noopener"} includes residential rooftop solar as a component of India's distributed generation targets. PM Surya Ghar is specifically cited as the primary mechanism for scaling residential rooftop solar capacity from approximately 10 GW (2023) to the national rooftop target. CEEW analysis has also tracked PM Surya Ghar's contribution to India's 500 GW non-fossil capacity target for 2030.
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